"The significant problems we have cannot be solved at the same level of thinking with which we created them." – Albert Einstein
It is an undeniable fact that sometime in our lifetimes we will see a major shift in perspective, cost, access, and dependence level on fossil fuels. Oil dependency, in this country in particular, is at an all time high, while access to oil is only diminishing. Although a vast majority of people are not even aware that there is such an issue on the horizon, those who do are scrambling to find solutions, most of which rely heavily on alternative sources of energy resources. Amidst all the theories on oil usage and dependency, there is a driving force for the need for a change: the peak oil theory.
The ability to extract oil from the earth, from a given place, grows exponentially until it reaches a peak point; the point at which it is the most abundant and easy to access. After this peak the extraction rate declines, sometimes quite rapidly. Sixty-four, out of ninety eight, oil producing countries are thought to have already reached their peak point of oil production (Brangwyn 2), and are now in a point of decline. Most scientists believe the global point of peak oil production will occur sometime in the near future, while some theorize that it has already occurred. While there is no definitive way to predict when a country will reach it’s peak, there is a pattern that peak oil usually follows, that was first noted by M. King Hubbert in 1956. The peak in oil production in a given country usually occurs thirty to forty years after the peak in discovery of new oil locations. The world’s collective discovery peak was in 1965. If the pattern follows, as it has for many countries before, the world is about to reach its peak oil point (Hopkins 22).
But what does this actually mean in regards to how the average American lives their life? The production of cheap oil has been steadily increasing for the last hundred and fifty years (Brangwyn 3). Once it reaches this peak, oil will become harder and more expensive to extract and eventually “further expansion of oil production (will become) impossible because new production flows are fully offset by production declines” (Hopkins 14). It’s important to note that the earth will never run out of oil, but in the near future the access to cheap oil will run out. A study, primarily written by Robert Hirsh, does not underplay the profound effects that peak oil will have:
The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking. (4)
With an issue of this magnitude on the horizon, a timely and appropriate response needs to happen immediately.
Most major oil companies have not been open or honest about the fact that there will be problems with locating new oil reserves for the future. This is because it is not in their corporation’s economical best interest to work on solutions to counteract peak oil, such those solutions that emphasize a reduction in oil usage. For this very reason, actions and solutions must be taken and created at a citizen level. Along with oil companies, the American government has been slow at making a shift with oil usage and policies. Being proactive and not relying on the government to implement laws that will lead to a more sustainable life is essential. Now is the time to start rethinking the way America, in particular, uses fossil fuels.
There is one movement that is addressing the issues of peak oil and oil dependency head on. It’s called the transition town movement. Transition Towns are an international movement to raise awareness about peak oil, climate change and resource depletion, usually working together to hold forums on change, sustainable agriculture, and in some locations set up their own local currency. At the heart of the transition movement is the need to be “…relocalizing all essential elements that a community needs to sustain itself and thrive” (Tay 4). This is both absolutely essential and seemingly very difficult for a country whose dependence on oil allows two percent of the population to feed the other ninety eight percent (Brangwyn 10). But the transition town movement is about responding to these frightening realities of oil decline with creativity, adaptability, and imagination.
The idea of transition towns is viral. It spreads quickly and with no central governing force, they can happen anywhere with anybody. These communities are self-organizing and most all of the information is open source. People get involved, come up and implement ideas and then spread them along to other communities. With this degree of diversity, these communities can range in size and format, and change depending on size and location. (Hopkins Ted Talks) They are, at their core, about coming together as a community to become stronger, more adaptable, and ready for a future without oil. This is resilience.
“Resilience is a capacity as old as our origins otherwise we wouldn’t be here”
Margaret Wheatley and Deborah frieze
The transition movement is about relocalizing resources and having a more sustainable life but, more importantly, it’s about creating a strength built around those ideals; a strength that can withstand the ups and downs of the future. This strength doesn’t come from an overarching control, but from local communities banding together to make a difference. The transition movement is somewhat defined by its self organizing principles and the ability for all individuals to take ownership of the movement and making a differences (Shelby) Ben Brangwyn gave an illustrative example of resilience in relations to communities by describing it like a person on a tight rope. If a person 200 feet in the air is pushed, they will undoubtedly fall to the ground, they have no resilience. However, if a person is pushed who has both feet on the ground, braced for the thrust, they will remain upright more often than not. They are resilient just like transition towns aim to be.
There are over two hundred formal Transition Town projects, and thousands more in the mulling stages. But what does it actually take to become a transition town? There are twelve steps that are a good guideline for creating a transition town. Once the idea of a transition movement has been proposed within a community the first step is to set up a steering group; a group to set and make transition oriented goals. From this initial group, sub groups will be formed and once they have it is important to disband the steering group, so the sub groups can expand. These newly formed groups should read books, go to talks, and meet to talk about issues, so as to become familiar with peak oil. In the beginning stages it’s also very helpful to meet with other established group.
There are over two hundred formal Transition Town projects, and thousands more in the mulling stages, but what does it actually take to become a transition town? Once the idea of a transition movement has been proposed within a community the first step is to set up a steering group; a group to set and make transition oriented goals. From this initial group, sub groups will be formed and these newly formed groups should read books, go to talks, and meet to talk about issues, so as to become familiar with peak oil. Once the groundwork has been laid and people within the group feel they have a strong understanding of peak oil and transition town practices, it is then time to organize a great unleashing. This event brings the initiative into the community and marks the milestone of the group; a fun event that sets the tone for an energetic long lasting project. Once the initiative is released to the community more work must always be done and creating feasible, practical and visible goals will help the community move forward.
A central idea within the transition town movement is the ability to support oneself and their community. The great reskilling is a concept of offering training of skills such as: natural building, food growing, and repairing. They aim to help people re-learn how to be able to support themselves with skills that oil has made obsolete. It’s not as much about going back to “how it was before” but more about developing the skills that can benefit our resilience and strength. One of the last of the twelve steps of a transition initiative is to create an energy descent plan, which lays out a timeline for the community ten to twenty years down the road, factoring in a reduction in oil (Hopkins 148-172).
As the transition movement grows, it forges a path for others to follow. While the road ahead is uncertain, now is one of the hardest parts of the journey: taking a stand, making a change, and creating a new perspective. Eventually there will need to be government action, legislation, and a bigger overarching power. This will be easier to accomplish if there is a strong, established, growing movement of thriving communities that can share their progress and shows the others the way.
“The uncertainty of our times is no reason to be certain about hopelessness”
Vandana Shiva
Peak oil is an opportunity. It is a chance to
become stronger, closer, and fuller. Although the future can be frightening at
times, we have the tools to create better lives for ourselves. Ingenuity and
creativity led us to the miraculously civilized point which were are at now,
and that same ingenuity and creativity will lead us to a life with less oil.
But we cannot build this new life alone. “By unleashing the collective genius
of the community we can design ways of living that are more enriching,
satisfying and connected than the present”(Tay 9). It’s time for all of use to think about our relationship with
oil.
